Using solar wind data to predict daily GPS scintillation occurrence in the African and Asian low‐latitude regions
Abstract
The feasibility of predicting the daily occurrence of Global Positioning System scintillation events using forecasts of common geophysical indices to drive a physics‐based model of the system is demonstrated over a 5 month period for the African and Asian longitude sectors. The output from the Wing Kp model, which uses solar wind data to predict the geomagnetic activity level up to 4 h in advance, was used to drive the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere/ionosphere model, from which the strength of the Rayleigh‐Taylor instability growth rate was calculated to determine the likelihood of scintillation. It is found that the physics‐based model demonstrates superior skill to an empirical scintillation model (Wideband Model (WBMOD)) in forecasting scintillation suppression events during seasons when scintillation is common. However, neither of the models driven in this way possess the ability to forecast isolated scintillation events during transitional and off‐peak seasons.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Dec 02, 2014
- Source ID
- 10.1002/2014gl062203
Entities
People
- B. A. Carter
- C. Bridgwood
- Endawoke Yizengaw
- J. M. Retterer
- K. M. Groves
- Kunyi Zhang
- Kyle Wiens
- M. Francis
- M. Terkildsen
- R. G. Caton
- R. Norman
- S. Wing
Organizations
- Air Force Office of Scientific Research
- Air Force Research Laboratory
- Australian Research Council
- Boston College
- Johns Hopkins University
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- National Science Foundation
- RMIT University