Importance of the Gulf of Mexico as a climate driver for U.S. severe thunderstorm activity

Abstract

Different features of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), such as the Loop Current and warm‐core rings, are found to influence monthly‐to‐seasonal severe weather occurrence in different regions of the United States (U.S.). The warmer (cooler) the GOM sea surface temperatures, the more (less) hail and tornadoes occur during March–May over the southern U.S. This pattern is reflected physically in boundary layer specific humidity and mixed‐layer convective available potential energy, two large‐scale atmospheric conditions favorable for severe weather occurrence. This relationship is complicated by interactions between the GOM and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but persists when analyzing ENSO neutral conditions. This suggests that the GOM can influence hail and tornado occurrence and provides another source of regional predictability for seasonal severe weather.

Document Details

Document Type
Pub Defense Publication
Publication Date
Dec 15, 2016
Source ID
10.1002/2016gl071603

Entities

People

  • John T. Allen
  • M. J. Molina
  • Reed P. Timmer

Organizations

  • Central Michigan University
  • Columbia University
  • Office of Naval Research

Tags

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers