Informativeness of wind data in linear Madden–Julian oscillation prediction
Abstract
Linear inverse models (LIMs) are used to explore predictability and information content of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Hindcast skill for outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) related to the MJO on intraseasonal timescales in the tropics has been examined for a variety of LIMs using OLR and optionally 200 and 850 hPa zonal wind information channels. The dependence of OLR hindcast skill on wind channels was evaluated by randomizing in time, averaging in space, or omitting data entirely. Results show positive prediction skill (relative to climatology) up to 3 weeks and wind information, mostly at the largest scales, adds 1–2 days of skill.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- May 13, 2016
- Source ID
- 10.1002/asl.666
Entities
People
- Brian Mapes
- Nicholas Cavanaugh
- Theodore Allen
Organizations
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- National Science Foundation
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Department of Energy
- University of Miami