Seamless precipitation prediction skill comparison between two global models
Abstract
The prediction of precipitation by two ocean–atmosphere ensemble systems is compared with observations and each other over a broad range of time‐scales. The systems are the 2015 version of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive Ocean–Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) with a T47 atmosphere, and the 2011 version of the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) monthly system with a variable atmospheric resolution of T639 to T319. To facilitate the comparison across a seamless range of time‐scales, verification against observations is performed using data averaged over time windows equal in length to the forecast lead time, from 1 day to 4 weeks. In addition to this ‘actual’ skill, potential skill is computed by taking one ensemble member as truth and computing how well the other members forecast that member.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Nov 11, 2016
- Source ID
- 10.1002/qj.2928
Entities
People
- Adam Sobel
- Debra Hudson
- Fréderic Vitart
- Hongyan Zhu
- Matthew C. Wheeler
Organizations
- Bureau of Meteorology
- Columbia University
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- Office of Naval Research