The Gauging and Modeling of Rivers in the Sky
Abstract
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for most of the horizontal water vapor flux outside of the tropics and can cause extreme precipitation and affect the atmospheric dynamics and predictability. For their impacts to be skillfully predicted, it is essential for weather forecasting systems to accurately represent AR characteristics. Using the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System and dropsonde observations from the 2018 AR Reconnaissance field campaign over the Northeast Pacific Ocean, it is shown that the AR structure is modeled well but that short‐range water vapor flux forecasts have a root‐mean‐square error of 60.0 kgm−1 s−1 (21.9% of mean observed flux). These errors are most related to uncertainties in the winds near the top of the planetary boundary layer. The findings identify a potential barrier in the prediction of high‐impact weather and suggest an area where research should be focused to improve atmospheric forecast systems.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Aug 08, 2018
- Source ID
- 10.1029/2018gl079019
Entities
People
- Carolyn A. Reynolds
- David Lavers
- David Richardson
- Florian Pappenberger
- Fred Ralph
- James D. Doyle
- Mark J. Rodwell
- Vijay Tallapragada
Organizations
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography
- Seventh Framework Programme
- United States Naval Research Laboratory