A Year‐Round Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal Sea Ice Prediction Portal
Abstract
A significant barrier to understanding and quantifying current skill of Arctic sea ice forecasts is a lack of a central database to enable model evaluation and intercomparison. This study addresses this issue by introducing a central server and web portal housing multimodel ensemble forecasts. We present an overview of the portal and provide an analysis of 2018 forecast skill. Among the 16 participating models, forecasts of sea ice concentration varied widely; yet the multimodel mean generally offered skillful forecasts for up to 5 months. Models that assimilated observed concentrations with more advanced methods performed better on average than other models. Similarly, one model that incorporated satellite‐based sea ice thickness thereafter compared most favorably with thickness measured along IceBridge flight tracks. These results highlight the benefits from multimodel predictions and assimilating sea ice variables and the insights gained from near‐real‐time evaluation of operational forecasts.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Mar 22, 2019
- Source ID
- 10.1029/2018gl081565
Entities
People
- Cecilia M. Bitz
- Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth
- Nicholas E. Wayand
Organizations
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- Office of Naval Research
- University of Washington