Atmospheric River Precipitation Enhanced by Climate Change: A Case Study of the Storm That Contributed to California's Oroville Dam Crisis
Abstract
An increasingly volatile hydroclimate increases California's reliance on precipitation from atmospheric rivers (ARs) for water resources. Here, we simulate the AR that contributed to the Oroville Dam crisis in early February 2017 under global climate conditions representing preindustrial, present‐day, mid‐, and late‐21st century environments. This event consisted of two distinct AR pulses: the first snowy, westerly, and cool followed by a southwesterly and warm pulse resulting in copious rain‐on‐snow. We estimate that climate change to date results in ∼11% and ∼15% increase in precipitation over the Feather River Basin in Northern California for the first and second pulses, respectively, with late‐21st century enhancements upwards of ∼21% and ∼59%, respectively. Although both pulses were enhanced by the imposed climate changes, the thermodynamic response and subsequent precipitation increases were most substantial during the second pulse. The disparate changes demonstrated here highlight that not all ARs will respond similarly in a warmer world.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 2022
- Source ID
- 10.1029/2021ef002537
Entities
People
- A. Michaelis
- Alexander Gershunov
- Alexander Weyant
- Fred Ralph
- Meredith A. Fish
- Tamara Shulgina
Organizations
- Northern Illinois University
- Rutgers University
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography
- United States Army Corps of Engineers