A Hybrid Approach to Atmospheric Modeling That Combines Machine Learning With a Physics‐Based Numerical Model

Abstract

This paper describes an implementation of the combined hybrid‐parallel prediction (CHyPP) approach of Wikner et al. (2020), https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0005541 on a low‐resolution atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM). The CHyPP approach combines a physics‐based numerical model of a dynamical system (e.g., the atmosphere) with a computationally efficient type of machine learning (ML) called reservoir computing to construct a hybrid model. This hybrid atmospheric model produces more accurate forecasts of most atmospheric state variables than the host AGCM for the first 7–8 forecast days, and for even longer times for the temperature and humidity near the earth's surface. It also produces more accurate forecasts than a model based only on ML, or a model that combines linear regression, rather than ML, with the AGCM. The potential of the CHyPP approach for climate research is demonstrated by a 10‐year long hybrid model simulation of the atmospheric general circulation, which shows that the hybrid model can simulate the general circulation with substantially smaller systematic errors and more realistic variability than the host AGCM.

Document Details

Document Type
Pub Defense Publication
Publication Date
Feb 28, 2022
Source ID
10.1029/2021ms002712

Entities

People

  • Alexander Wikner
  • Brian R. Hunt
  • Edward Ott
  • István Szunyogh
  • Jaideep Pathak
  • Troy Arcomano

Organizations

  • Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
  • Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
  • National Science Foundation
  • Office of Naval Research
  • University of Maryland

Tags

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Distributed Systems and Data Platform Development
  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference
  • AI & ML - Neural Networks