The Summertime Pacific‐North American Weather Regimes and Their Predictability
Abstract
The forecast skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and the intrinsic predictability can be different among weather regimes. Here, we examine the predictability of distinct Pacific‐North American weather regimes during extended boreal summer. The four identified weather regimes include Pacific trough, Arctic low, Arctic high, and Alaskan ridge. The medium range forecast skill of these regimes is quantified in the ECMWF and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction models from the TIGGE project. Based on anomaly correlation coefficient, persistence, and transition frequency, the highest forecast skill is consistently found for the Arctic high regime. Based on the instantaneous local dimension and persistence from a dynamical systems analysis, the Arctic high regime has the highest intrinsic predictability. The analysis also suggests that overall, the Pacific trough regime has the lowest intrinsic predictability. These findings are consistent with the forecast skills of the NWP models, and highlight the link between prediction skill and intrinsic predictability.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Aug 27, 2022
- Source ID
- 10.1029/2022gl099401
Entities
People
- Ebrahim Nabizadeh
- Pedram Hassanzadeh
- Sandro W Lubis
Organizations
- Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- Office of Naval Research
- Rice University