Clouds Increasingly Influence Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures as CO2 Rises
Abstract
As Arctic sea ice retreats during the melt season, the upper ocean warms in response to atmospheric heat fluxes. Overall, clouds reduce these fluxes in summer, but how the radiative impacts of clouds on ocean warming could change as sea ice declines has not been documented. In global climate model simulations with variable CO2, the timing of sea ice retreat strongly influences the amplitude of cloud‐induced summer cooling at the ocean surface. Under pre‐industrial CO2 concentrations, summer clouds have little direct effect on maximum annual sea surface temperatures (SST). When CO2 concentrations increase, sea ice retreats earlier, allowing more solar radiation to warm the ocean. Clouds can counteract this summer warming by reflecting solar radiation back to space. Consequently, clouds explain up to 13% more variability in maximum annual SST under modern‐day CO2 concentrations. Maximum annual SST are three times more sensitive to summer clouds when CO2 concentrations are four times pre‐industrial levels.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Apr 20, 2023
- Source ID
- 10.1029/2023gl102850
Entities
People
- Anne Sledd
- Jennifer E. Kay
- Michael Steele
- Tristan L'Ecuyer
Organizations
- Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Office of Naval Research
- University of Colorado Boulder
- University of Washington
- University of Wisconsin–Madison