A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia
Abstract
Emerging diseases caused by coronaviruses of likely bat origin (e.g., SARS, MERS, SADS, COVID-19) have disrupted global health and economies for two decades. Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this spillover may help target prevention programs. We derive current range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human viral seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that a median of 66,280 people (95% CI: 65,351–67,131) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in Southeast Asia. These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Aug 09, 2022
- Source ID
- 10.1038/s41467-022-31860-w
Entities
People
- Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio
- Cecilia A Sánchez
- Hongying Li
- Kendra Phelps
- Kevin J. Olival
- Lin-Fa Wang
- Peng Zhou
- Peter Daszak
- Shi Zhengli
Organizations
- Defense Threat Reduction Agency
- Ministry of Education
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
- National Medical Research Council
- National Research Foundation
- United States Department of Health and Human Services