Advancing early warning capabilities with CHIRPS-compatible NCEP GEFS precipitation forecasts
Abstract
CHIRPS-GEFS is an operational data set that provides daily bias-corrected forecasts for next 1-day to ~15-day precipitation totals and anomalies at a quasi-global 50-deg N to 50-deg S extent and 0.05-degree resolution. These are based on National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFS v12) precipitation forecasts. CHIRPS-GEFS forecasts are compatible with Climate Hazards center InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data, which is actively used for drought monitoring, early warning, and near real-time impact assessments. A rank-based quantile matching procedure is used to transform GEFS v12 “reforecast” and “real-time” forecast ensemble means to CHIRPS spatial-temporal characteristics. Matching distributions to CHIRPS makes forecasts better reflect local climatology at finer spatial resolution and reduces moderate-to-large forecast errors. As shown in this study, having a CHIRPS-compatible version of the latest generation of NCEP GEFS forecasts enables rapid assessment of current forecasts and local historical context. CHIRPS-GEFS effectively bridges the gap between observations and weather predictions, increasing the value of both by connecting monitoring resources (CHIRPS) with interoperable forecasts.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Jun 30, 2022
- Source ID
- 10.1038/s41597-022-01468-2
Entities
People
- Chris Funk
- Frank Davenport
- Greg Husak
- L. Harrison
- Martin Landsfeld
- Pete Peterson
- Shraddhanand Shukla
- W. D. Turner
Organizations
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- United States Agency for International Development
- United States Department of Defense