Asymptomatic individuals can increase the final epidemic size under adaptive human behavior
Abstract
Infections produced by non-symptomatic (pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic) individuals have been identified as major drivers of COVID-19 transmission. Non-symptomatic individuals, unaware of the infection risk they pose to others, may perceive themselves—and be perceived by others—as not presenting a risk of infection. Yet, many epidemiological models currently in use do not include a behavioral component, and do not address the potential consequences of risk misperception. To study the impact of behavioral adaptations to the perceived infection risk, we use a mathematical model that incorporates the behavioral decisions of individuals, based on a projection of the system’s future state over a finite planning horizon. We found that individuals’ risk misperception in the presence of non-symptomatic individuals may increase or reduce the final epidemic size. Moreover, under behavioral response the impact of non-symptomatic infections is modulated by symptomatic individuals’ behavior. Finally, we found that there is an optimal planning horizon that minimizes the final epidemic size.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Oct 05, 2021
- Source ID
- 10.1038/s41598-021-98999-2
Entities
People
- Baltazar Espinoza
- Madhav Marathe
- Mugdha Thakur
- Samarth Swarup
Organizations
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- Defense Threat Reduction Agency
- National Institutes of Health
- National Science Foundation
- University of Virginia