Warning signals for eruptive events in spreading fires

Abstract

As flames spread through forests, buildings, or other complex environments, they can erupt, unexpectedly, into fast-moving conflagrations. This study presents evidence that characteristic patterns in the behavior of spreading flames may indicate when such eruptions are likely to occur. Our results rely on the detection of a phenomenon termed “critical slowing down”—the slowed recovery of multistable systems from perturbations as those systems approach tipping points. Using a bistable combustion system in which flames propagate either as small, slowly moving flames, or as large, rapidly moving flames stabilized by feedback between wind and fire, we provide evidence that slowing responses of spreading flames to sudden changes in environment (e.g., wind, terrain) may anticipate the onset of intense, feedback-stabilized modes of propagation.

Document Details

Document Type
Pub Defense Publication
Publication Date
Feb 09, 2015
Source ID
10.1073/pnas.1417043112

Entities

People

  • George M. Whitesides
  • Jerome M Fox

Organizations

  • Harvard University
  • John Templeton Foundation
  • Office of Basic Energy Sciences

Tags

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science / Meteorology, specifically Wind Wave Turbulence.
  • Control Systems Engineering.
  • Solar Physics