Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought
Abstract
There is evidence that the 2007−2010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria. It was the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers. Century-long observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure, supported by climate model results, strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007−2010 2 to 3 times more likely than by natural variability alone. We conclude that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Mar 02, 2015
- Source ID
- 10.1073/pnas.1421533112
Entities
People
- Colin P. Kelley
- Mark Cane
- Richard Seager
- Shahrzad Mohtadi
- Yochanan Kushnir
Organizations
- Columbia University
- United States Department of Energy
- University of California