Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era
Abstract
We present the first, to our knowledge, estimate of global sea-level (GSL) change over the last ∼3,000 years that is based upon statistical synthesis of a global database of regional sea-level reconstructions. GSL varied by ∼±8 cm over the pre-Industrial Common Era, with a notable decline over 1000–1400 CE coinciding with ∼0.2 °C of global cooling. The 20th century rise was extremely likely faster than during any of the 27 previous centuries. Semiempirical modeling indicates that, without global warming, GSL in the 20th century very likely would have risen by between −3 cm and +7 cm, rather than the ∼14 cm observed. Semiempirical 21st century projections largely reconcile differences between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections and semiempirical models.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Feb 22, 2016
- Source ID
- 10.1073/pnas.1517056113
Entities
People
- Andrew C. Kemp
- Benjamin P. Horton
- Carling C. Hay
- Eric D. Morrow
- Jeffrey P. Donnelly
- Jerry X. Mitrovica
- Klaus Bittermann
- Robert E. Kopp
- Stefan Rahmstorf
- W. Roland Gehrels
Organizations
- Harvard University
- Nanyang Technological University
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- National Science Foundation
- New Jersey Sea Grant Consortium
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
- Rutgers University
- Tufts University
- United States Department of Defense
- University of York
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution