Near-linear response of mean monsoon strength to a broad range of radiative forcings
Abstract
Previous studies have argued that monsoons, which are continental-scale atmospheric circulations that deliver water to billions of people, will abruptly shut down when aerosol emissions, land use change, or greenhouse gas concentrations reach a critical threshold. Here it is shown that the theory used to predict such “tipping points” omits a dominant term in the equations of motion, and that both a corrected theory and an ensemble of global climate model simulations exhibit no abrupt shift in monsoon strength in response to large changes in various forcings. Therefore, although monsoons are expected to change in response to anthropogenic forcings, there is no reason to expect an abrupt shift into a dry regime in the next century or two.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Jan 25, 2016
- Source ID
- 10.1073/pnas.1517143113
Entities
People
- Trude Storelvmo
- William R. Boos
Organizations
- National Science Foundation
- Office of Naval Research
- Yale University