Simple stochastic model for El Niño with westerly wind bursts
Abstract
Understanding the role that atmospheric wind bursts play in the initiation and maintenance of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropics is a crucial problem in ocean–atmosphere sciences. We provide insight into the problem by proposing a simple ENSO model, amenable to detailed analysis, where wind burst activity is driven by a simple stochastic jump process that depends on the strength of the western Pacific warm pool. The model captures key features of the observational record, such as the probability density function and power spectrum of eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures. In addition, the varying intensity and strength of El Niño events from the model are also consistent with real observations including super El Niño episodes.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Aug 29, 2016
- Source ID
- 10.1073/pnas.1612002113
Entities
People
- Andrew J. Majda
- Nan Chen
- Samuel N. Stechmann
- Sulian Thual
Organizations
- New York University
- Office of Naval Research
- University of Wisconsin–Madison