Forecasting the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States
Abstract
In the last two decades, multiple outbreaks of emerging pathogens have unexpectedly swept the planet. In these public health emergencies, pathogens invade new regions in the span of just a few weeks to months, leaving a critical window of opportunity during which real-time warning could be sounded. As such, accurate prediction of the spatial spread of pathogens could provide invaluable benefits to global public health. Here we develop and validate an operational forecast system that is capable of predicting the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States. In particular, the onset week of local outbreaks can be accurately predicted up to 6 wk in advance at state level.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Feb 26, 2018
- Source ID
- 10.1073/pnas.1708856115
Entities
People
- Jeffrey Shaman
- Sasikiran Kandula
- Sen Pei
- Wan Yang
Organizations
- Columbia University
- Defense Threat Reduction Agency
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
- National Institute of General Medical Sciences