Quantifying the future lethality of terror organizations
Abstract
We develop and test a model that predicts the future lethality of a terror group. The model significantly increases the level of explained variance over existing models and presents early-warning signal predictions. Our early-warning model predicts the future lethality of a group using only a handful of events that occur soon after it emerges. Using the first 10 to 20 attacks or the first 10 to 20% of a group’s lifetime, our early-warning model provides about 60% of the explanatory power as would having a group’s complete lifetime data, which is a basis for improved counter insurgency resources.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Oct 07, 2019
- Source ID
- 10.1073/pnas.1901975116
Entities
People
- Adam R. Pah
- Brian Uzzi
- Yang Yang
Organizations
- Army Research Office
- Northwestern University
- United States Army Research Laboratory