An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics
Abstract
A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was generally lowest for high incidence seasons, those for which forecasts would be most valuable. A comparison of modeling approaches revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts. Leveraging these insights, data, and the forecasting framework will be critical to improve forecast skill and the application of forecasts in real time for epidemic preparedness and response. Moreover, key components of this project—integration with public health needs, a common forecasting framework, shared and standardized data, and open participation—can help advance infectious disease forecasting beyond dengue.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Nov 11, 2019
- Source ID
- 10.1073/pnas.1909865116
Entities
People
- Aaron Lane
- Abraham Reddy
- Alexandria C. Brown
- Alicia Juarrero
- Andrew M. Hebbeler
- Anna L. Buczak
- Anna M Stewart-Ibarra
- Antarpreet Jutla
- Benjamin Baugher
- Brenda Rivera-garcía
- Brett M. Forshey
- Christopher M Barker
- Courtney C. Murdock
- Daniel P. Weikel
- David C. Farrow
- David Manheim
- David Swerdlow
- Derek Cummings
- Dhananjai M. Rao
- Dylan George
- Eloy Ortiz
- Erhan Guven
- Erin A. Mordecai
- Evan L Ray
- Fengchen Liu
- Gao Jiang
- Grant Osborne
- Hannah E. Clapham
- Harold S. Margolis
- Humberto Brito
- Jason Asher
- Jason Devita
- Jason R. Rohr
- Jean-Paul Chretien
- Jeffrey Shaman
- Jeremy M. Cohen
- Jesse E. Bell
- Jorge Rivero
- Juli Trtanj
- Justin Lessler
- Karyn M. Apfeldorf
- Krzysztof Sakrejda
- Leah R. Johnson
- Lee Worden
- Linda J. Moniz
- Logan C. Brooks
- Luis Mier-y-teran-romero
- Marissa Poultney
- Markel García-díez
- Marília S Carvalho
- Matt Clay
- Matteo Convertino
- Matthew Biggerstaff
- Melinda Moore
- Michael A. Johansson
- Nicholas G. Reich
- Nick Lothian
- Osonde Osoba
- Rachel Lowe
- Raffaele Vardavas
- Rakibul Khan
- Richard Paul
- Rita R. Colwell
- Robert B. Gramacy
- Roni Rosenfeld
- Ryan J. Tibshirani
- Sadie J. Ryan
- Sangwon Hyun
- Sarah Ackley
- Scott Dobson
- Sean M Moore
- Stephen A. Lauer
- Steven M. Babin
- Teresa K. Yamana
- Terry Moschou
- Thomas Bagley
- Travis C. Porco
- Trevor C. Bailey
- Tridip Sardar
- Xavier Rodó
- Xi Meng
- Yang Liu
Organizations
- Carnegie Mellon University
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- Columbia University
- Defense Intelligence Agency
- Defense Threat Reduction Agency
- Harvard University
- Hokkaido University
- In-Q-Tel
- Indian Statistical Institute
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
- Johns Hopkins University
- Leidos
- Miami University
- Mount Holyoke College
- National Center for Scientific Research
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
- National Institute of General Medical Sciences
- National Institutes of Health
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- National Science Foundation
- Office of Science
- Open Philanthropy Project
- Oswaldo Cruz Foundation
- Puerto Rico Department of Health
- RAND Corporation
- Royal Society
- Stanford University
- State University of New York
- United States Department of State
- University of California
- University of Exeter
- University of Florida
- University of Georgia
- University of Maryland
- University of Massachusetts
- University of Miami
- University of Michigan
- University of Minnesota
- University of Nebraska Medical Center
- University of Notre Dame
- University of Oxford
- University of South Florida
- Virginia Tech
- West Virginia University