A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

Abstract

Impacts of global warming on agricultural productivity have been evaluated extensively. The implications of sudden cooling for global crop growth, however, are as yet little understood. While crop failures after historic volcanic eruptions are documented, a nuclear conflict can cause even more severe and longer-lasting climate anomalies. India and Pakistan are contributing to a de facto Asian arms race and the political instability in South Asia increasingly imposes a global threat. Based on comprehensive climate and crop model ensemble simulations, we provide critical quantitative information on how sudden cooling and perturbations of precipitation and solar radiation could disrupt food production and trade worldwide for about a decade—more than the impact from anthropogenic climate change by late century.

Document Details

Document Type
Pub Defense Publication
Publication Date
Mar 16, 2020
Source ID
10.1073/pnas.1919049117

Entities

People

  • Alan Robock
  • Alison Heslin
  • Charles G. Bardeen
  • Christian Folberth
  • Christoph Müller
  • Cynthia Rosenzweig
  • Erwin Schmid
  • Florian Zabel
  • Ian T. Foster
  • James Franke
  • Jonas Jägermeyr
  • Joshua Elliott
  • Lili Xia
  • Michael J. Puma
  • Nikolay Khabarov
  • Owen Toon
  • Sam S. Rabin
  • Senthold Asseng
  • Wenfeng Liu

Organizations

  • Argonne National Laboratory
  • Columbia University
  • Eawag
  • International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
  • Leibniz Association
  • Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration
  • National Center for Atmospheric Research
  • National Science Foundation
  • Open Philanthropy Project
  • Paris-Saclay University
  • Rutgers University
  • University of Chicago
  • University of Colorado
  • University of Florida
  • University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna

Tags

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Industrial Economics
  • Systems Analysis and Design