Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening and Recent Increases in Advanced Prostate Cancer
Abstract
Recent studies show decreasing prostate-specific antigen utilization and increasing incidence of metastatic prostate cancer in the United States after national recommendations against screening in 2012. Yet, whether the increasing incidence of metastatic prostate cancer is consistent in magnitude with the expected impact of decreased screening is unknown. We compared observed incidence of metastatic prostate cancer from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and published effects of continued historical screening and discontinued screening starting in 2013 projected by 2 models of disease natural history, screening, and diagnosis. The observed rate of new metastatic prostate cancer cases in 2017 was 44%-60% of the projected increase under discontinued screening relative to continued screening. Thus, the observed increase in incident metastatic prostate cancer is consistent with the expected impact of reduced screening. Although this comparison does not establish a causal relationship, it highlights the plausible role of decreased screening in the observed trend.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Oct 26, 2020
- Source ID
- 10.1093/jncics/pkaa098
Entities
People
- Alexander Tsodikov
- John L. Gore
- Roman Gulati
- Ruth Etzioni
- Yaw A. Nyame
Organizations
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center
- National Cancer Institute
- United States Department of Defense
- University of Michigan
- University of Washington