An algebraic framework for structured epidemic modelling
Abstract
Pandemic management requires that scientists rapidly formulate and analyse epidemiological models in order to forecast the spread of disease and the effects of mitigation strategies. Scientists must modify existing models and create novel ones in light of new biological data and policy changes such as social distancing and vaccination. Traditional scientific modelling workflows detach the structure of a model—its submodels and their interactions—from its implementation in software. Consequently, incorporating local changes to model components may require global edits to the code base through a manual, time-intensive and error-prone process. We propose a compositional modelling framework that uses high-level algebraic structures to capture domain-specific scientific knowledge and bridge the gap between how scientists think about models and the code that implements them. These algebraic structures, grounded in applied category theory, simplify and expedite modelling tasks such as model specification, stratification, analysis and calibration. With their structure made explicit, models also become easier to communicate, criticize and refine in light of stakeholder feedback.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Aug 15, 2022
- Source ID
- 10.1098/rsta.2021.0309
Entities
People
- Andrew Baas
- Evan Patterson
- James Fairbanks
- Micah Halter
- Sophie Libkind
Organizations
- Air Force Office of Scientific Research
- Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
- Georgia Tech
- Stanford University
- University of Florida