Ecological conditions predict the intensity of Hendra virus excretion over space and time from bat reservoir hosts
Abstract
The ecological conditions experienced by wildlife reservoirs affect infection dynamics and thus the distribution of pathogen excreted into the environment. This spatial and temporal distribution of shed pathogen has been hypothesised to shape risks of zoonotic spillover. However, few systems have data on both long‐term ecological conditions and pathogen excretion to advance mechanistic understanding and test environmental drivers of spillover risk. We here analyse three years of Hendra virus data from nine Australian flying fox roosts with covariates derived from long‐term studies of bat ecology. We show that the magnitude of winter pulses of viral excretion, previously considered idiosyncratic, are most pronounced after recent food shortages and in bat populations displaced to novel habitats. We further show that cumulative pathogen excretion over time is shaped by bat ecology and positively predicts spillover frequency. Our work emphasises the role of reservoir host ecology in shaping pathogen excretion and provides a new approach to estimate spillover risk.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Oct 30, 2022
- Source ID
- 10.1111/ele.14007
Entities
People
- Alison J. Peel
- Daniel J. Becker
- Peggy Eby
- Raina K. Plowright
- Wyatt Madden
Organizations
- Australian Research Council
- Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
- Griffith University
- Montana State University
- National Science Foundation
- United States Department of Agriculture
- University of New South Wales
- University of Oklahoma