Risk-Adaptive Set-Based Design and Applications to Shaping a Hydrofoil

Abstract

The paper presents a framework for set-based design under uncertainty and demonstrates its viability through designing a super-cavitating hydrofoil of an ultrahigh speed vessel. The framework achieves designs that safely meet the requirements as quantified precisely by superquantile measures of risk (s-risk) and reduces the complexity of design under uncertainty. S-risk ensures comprehensive and decision-theoretically sound assessment of risk and permits a decoupling of parametric uncertainty and surrogate (model) uncertainty. The framework is compatible with any surrogate building technique, but we illustrate it by developing for the first time risk-adaptive surrogates that are especially tailored to s-risk. The numerical results demonstrate the framework in a complex design case requiring multifidelity simulation.

Document Details

Document Type
Pub Defense Publication
Publication Date
Aug 30, 2017
Source ID
10.1115/1.4037623

Entities

People

  • G. Vernengo
  • J. O. Royset
  • L. Bonfiglio
  • S. Brizzolara

Organizations

  • Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD)
  • Marine Propulsion Engineering and Naval Architecture