Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity
Abstract
Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas–driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Jul 15, 2016
- Source ID
- 10.1126/science.aaf6574
Entities
People
- Adam Sobel
- Allison A. Wing
- Chia-ying Lee
- Michael K. Tippett
- Suzana J. Camargo
- Timothy M. Hall
Organizations
- Columbia University
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies
- King Abdulaziz University
- National Science Foundation
- Office of Naval Research