Improving election prediction internationally
Abstract
Assumptions underlying election result predictions have been questioned recently. Kennedy et al. assessed more than 650 executive office elections in over 85 countries and performed two live forecasting experiments. They analyzed a variety of potential predictors theorized to be of importance, ranging from economic performance to polling data. Elections were about 80 to 90% predictable, despite uncertainties with available data. Polling data were very important to successful prediction, although it was necessary to correct for systematic biases. Unexpectedly, economic indicators were only weakly predictive. As data sources improve and grow, predictive power is expected to increase.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Feb 03, 2017
- Source ID
- 10.1126/science.aal2887
Entities
People
- David Lazer
- Ryan Kennedy
- Stefan Wojcik
Organizations
- Harvard University
- Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity
- Northeastern University
- University of Houston