Infinite Swapping using IID Samples

Abstract

We propose a new method for estimating rare event probabilities when independent samples are available. It is assumed that the underlying probability measures satisfy a large deviation principle with a scaling parameter ε that we call temperature. We show how by combining samples at different temperatures, one can construct an estimator with greatly reduced variance. Although as presented here the method is not as broadly applicable as other rare event simulation methods, such as splitting or importance sampling, it does not require any problem-dependent constructions.

Document Details

Document Type
Pub Defense Publication
Publication Date
Jun 18, 2019
Source ID
10.1145/3317605

Entities

People

  • Guo-Jhen Wu
  • Michael Snarski
  • Paul Dupuis

Organizations

  • Brown University
  • Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
  • National Science Foundation
  • Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council
  • Wind Energy Technologies Office

Tags

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Superconducting Magnet Technology