Social Prevalence Is Rationally Integrated in Belief Updating
Abstract
People rely on social information to inform their beliefs. We ask whether and to what degree the perceived prevalence of a belief influences belief adoption. We present the results of two experiments that show how increases in a person’s estimated prevalence of a belief led to increased endorsement of said belief. Belief endorsement rose when impressions of the belief’s prevalence were increased and when initial beliefs were uncertain, as predicted by a Bayesian cue integration framework. Thus, people weigh social information rationally. An implication of these results is that social engagement metrics that prompt inflated prevalence estimates in users risk increasing the believability and adoption of viral misinformation posts.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2022
- Source ID
- 10.1162/opmi_a_00056
Entities
People
- Celeste Kidd
- Evan Orticio
- Louis Martí
Organizations
- Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
- University of California, Berkeley