Dynamics and Predictability of the Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014)
Abstract
The dynamics and predictability of the intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014) are explored through a 60-member convection-permitting ensemble initialized with an ensemble Kalman filter that assimilates dropsondes collected during NASA’s Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) investigation. The 126-h forecasts are initialized when Edouard was designated as a tropical depression and include Edouard’s near–rapid intensification (RI) from a tropical storm to a strong category-2 hurricane. Although the deterministic forecast was very successful and many members correctly forecasted Edouard’s intensification, there was significant spread in the timing of intensification among the members of the ensemble.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Feb 01, 2017
- Source ID
- 10.1175/jas-d-16-0018.1
Entities
People
- Erin B. Munsell
- Fuqing Zhang
- Jason A. Sippel
- Scott A. Braun
- Yonghui Weng
Organizations
- Goddard Space Flight Center
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- National Science Foundation
- Office of Naval Research
- Pennsylvania State University