Predictability and Dynamics of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) Explored through Convection-Permitting Ensemble Sensitivity Experiments
Abstract
Real-time ensemble forecasts from the Pennsylvania State University (PSU) WRF EnKF system (APSU) for Hurricane Joaquin (2015) are examined in this study. The ensemble forecasts, from early in Joaquin’s life cycle, displayed large track spread, with nearly half of the ensemble members tracking Joaquin toward the U.S. East Coast and the other half tracking Joaquin out to sea. The ensemble forecasts also displayed large intensity spread, with many of the members developing into major hurricanes and other ensemble members not intensifying at all.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Jan 19, 2018
- Source ID
- 10.1175/jas-d-17-0137.1
Entities
People
- Erin B. Munsell
- Fuqing Zhang
- Jason A. Sippel
- Kerry Emanuel
- Robert G. Nystrom
- Scott A. Braun
- Yonghui Weng
Organizations
- Goddard Space Flight Center
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Office of Naval Research
- Pennsylvania State University
- Universities Space Research Association