The Relationship between Tropical Cyclones at Genesis and Their Maximum Attained Intensity
Abstract
Despite recent improvements made to tropical cyclone intensity predictions, this study investigates a different approach than those attempted thus far. Here, the overall environmental setup at genesis is evaluated to determine whether it predisposes a storm to reach its future maximum intensity. Variables retrieved from ERA-Interim are used to generate storm-centered composites at the time of genesis for Atlantic basin, main development region TCs from 1979–2015. Composites are stratified by their maximum attained intensity: tropical depressions (GTD), tropical storms (GTS), minor hurricanes (GMN), or major hurricanes (GMJ). A multiple-parameter linear regression is then used to associate the eventual attained intensity of tropical cyclone to the obtained variables at genesis. The regression has an adjusted r2 of 0.39, which indicates that a statistical relationship is present. Regression coefficients, along with the spatial distribution of variables in the storm-centered composites, indicate that storms that reach higher intensities are associated at genesis with stronger, more compact, low-level vortices, better-defined outflow jets, a more compact region of high midlevel relative humidity, and higher atmospheric water vapor content.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Jul 01, 2017
- Source ID
- 10.1175/jcli-d-16-0554.1
Entities
People
- Kristen L. Corbosiero
- Michaela Rosenmayer
- Sarah D. Ditchek
- T. Connor Nelson
Organizations
- Research Foundation for the State University of New York
- State University of New York at Albany
- United States Department of Defense