Predicting Invasions of North American Basses in Japan Using Native Range Data and a Genetic Algorithm
Abstract
Largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides and smallmouth bass M. dolomieu have been introduced into freshwater habitats in Japan, with potentially serious consequences for native fish populations. In this paper we apply the technique of ecological niche modeling using the genetic algorithm for rule‐set prediction (GARP) to predict the potential distributions of these two species in Japan. This algorithm constructs a niche model based on point occurrence records and ecological coverages. The model can be visualized in geographic space, yielding a prediction of potential geographic range. The model can then be tested by determining how well independent point occurrence data are predicted according to the criteria of sensitivity and specificity provided by receiver–operator curve analysis. We ground‐truthed GARP's ability to forecast the geographic occurrence of each species in its native range. The predictions were statistically significant for both species (P P < 0.001). The number of smallmouth bass in Japan was too small for statistical tests, but the 10 known occurrences were predicted by the majority of models.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Jul 01, 2004
- Source ID
- 10.1577/t03-172.1
Entities
People
- A. Townsend Peterson
- Dave A. Vieglais
- E. O. Wiley
- Katherine A. Powers
- Kei'ichiro Iguchi
- Keiichi Matsuura
- Kristina M. Mcnyset
- Ricardo Scachetti‐pereira
- Taiga Yodo
Organizations
- National Museum of Nature and Science
- National Research Institute of Fisheries Science
- National Science Foundation
- Office of Naval Research
- University of Kansas