Angles-Only Initial Orbit Determination via Multivariate Gaussian Process Regression

Abstract

Vital for Space Situational Awareness, Initial Orbit Determination (IOD) may be used to initialize object tracking and associate observations with a tracked satellite. Classical IOD algorithms provide only a point solution and are sensitive to noisy measurements and to certain target-observer geometry. This work examines the ability of a Multivariate GPR (MV-GPR) to accurately perform IOD and quantify the associated uncertainty. Given perfect test inputs, MV-GPR performs comparably to a simpler multitask learning GPR algorithm and the classical Gauss–Gibbs IOD in terms of prediction accuracy. It significantly outperforms the multitask learning GPR algorithm in uncertainty quantification due to the direct handling of output dimension correlations. A moment-matching algorithm provides an analytic solution to the input noise problem under certain assumptions. The algorithm is adapted to the MV-GPR formulation and shown to be an effective tool to accurately quantify the added input uncertainty. This work shows that the MV-GPR can provide a viable solution with quantified uncertainty which is robust to observation noise and traditionally challenging orbit-observer geometries.

Document Details

Document Type
Pub Defense Publication
Publication Date
Feb 15, 2022
Source ID
10.3390/electronics11040588

Entities

People

  • David J. Schwab
  • Puneet Singla
  • Sean O’rourke

Organizations

  • Air Force Office of Scientific Research
  • Department of Defence
  • United States Air Force

Tags

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Neural Network Machine Learning.
  • Space Exploration and Orbital Mechanics.

Technology Areas

  • Space
  • Space - Orbital Debris
  • Space - Space Objects