Estimated effectiveness of symptom and risk screening to prevent the spread of COVID-19
Abstract
Traveller screening is being used to limit further spread of COVID-19 following its recent emergence, and symptom screening has become a ubiquitous tool in the global response. Previously, we developed a mathematical model to understand factors governing the effectiveness of traveller screening to prevent spread of emerging pathogens (Gostic et al., 2015). Here, we estimate the impact of different screening programs given current knowledge of key COVID-19 life history and epidemiological parameters. Even under best-case assumptions, we estimate that screening will miss more than half of infected people. Breaking down the factors leading to screening successes and failures, we find that most cases missed by screening are fundamentally undetectable, because they have not yet developed symptoms and are unaware they were exposed. Our work underscores the need for measures to limit transmission by individuals who become ill after being missed by a screening program. These findings can support evidence-based policy to combat the spread of COVID-19, and prospective planning to mitigate future emerging pathogens.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Feb 24, 2020
- Source ID
- 10.7554/elife.55570
Entities
People
- Adam Kucharski
- Ana Cr Gomez
- James O. Lloyd-Smith
- Katelyn Gostic
- Riley O Mummah
Organizations
- Coordenação de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
- Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
- James S. McDonnell Foundation
- National Institutes of Health
- National Science Foundation
- Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program
- University of California
- University of Chicago
- Wellcome Trust