Early prediction of level-of-care requirements in patients with COVID-19
Abstract
This study examined records of 2566 consecutive COVID-19 patients at five Massachusetts hospitals and sought to predict level-of-care requirements based on clinical and laboratory data. Several classification methods were applied and compared against standard pneumonia severity scores. The need for hospitalization, ICU care, and mechanical ventilation were predicted with a validation accuracy of 88%, 87%, and 86%, respectively. Pneumonia severity scores achieve respective accuracies of 73% and 74% for ICU care and ventilation. When predictions are limited to patients with more complex disease, the accuracy of the ICU and ventilation prediction models achieved accuracy of 83% and 82%, respectively. Vital signs, age, BMI, dyspnea, and comorbidities were the most important predictors of hospitalization. Opacities on chest imaging, age, admission vital signs and symptoms, male gender, admission laboratory results, and diabetes were the most important risk factors for ICU admission and mechanical ventilation. The factors identified collectively form a signature of the novel COVID-19 disease.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Oct 12, 2020
- Source ID
- 10.7554/elife.60519
Entities
People
- Apostolos Gaitanidis
- Boran Hao
- George C. Velmahos
- Ioannis Ch. Paschalidis
- Kerry Breen
- Shahabeddin Sotudian
- Taiyao Wang
- Tingting Xu
- Yang Hu
Organizations
- Boston University
- Harvard Medical School
- National Institute of General Medical Sciences
- National Institutes of Health
- National Science Foundation
- Office of Naval Research