Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July—December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination
Abstract
In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced 6-month scenario projections for July–December 2021 for the United States. These projections estimated substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant, projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. The scenarios revealed that reaching higher vaccine coverage in July–December 2021 reduced the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially, with the expected impacts was largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. Despite accurate projection of COVID-19 surges occurring and timing, the magnitude was substantially underestimated 2021 by the models compared with the of the reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring during July–December, highlighting the continued challenges to predict the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination uptake remains critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower vaccination coverage. Higher vaccination goals at the onset of the surge of the new variant were estimated to avert over 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths, although may have had even greater impacts, considering the underestimated resurgence magnitude from the model.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Pub Defense Publication
- Publication Date
- Jun 21, 2022
- Source ID
- 10.7554/elife.73584
Entities
People
- Ajitesh Srivastava
- Alessandro Vespignani
- Alison Hill
- Ana Pastore Y Piontti
- Anil Vullikanti
- Aniruddha Adiga
- Benjamin Hurt
- Brian Klahn
- Bryan Lewis
- Claire P Smith
- Cécile Viboud
- Daniel Janies
- Dean Karlen
- Dustin Machi
- Elizabeth C Lee
- Emily Howerton
- Galen Harrison
- Harry Hochheiser
- Javier Perez-saez
- Jean-Claude Thill
- Jeffrey Shaman
- Jessica Kerr
- Jessica M Healy
- Jessica T Davis
- Jiangzhuo Chen
- John Levander
- Joseph C Lemairtre
- Joseph Outten
- Joshua Kaminsky
- Juan Dent
- Justin Lessler
- Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett
- Kate Tallaksen
- Katriona Shea
- Kunpeng Mu
- Lauren Shin
- Lucie Contamin
- Luke C Mullany
- Madhav Marathe
- Mark Orr
- Marta Galanti
- Matt Kinsey
- Matteo Chinazzi
- Matthew Biggerstaff
- Michael A. Johansson
- Michael C. Runge
- Michelle Qin
- Parantapa Bhattacharya
- Przemyslaw J Porebski
- Rachel B Slayton
- Rajib Paul
- Rebecca K Borchering
- Sen Pei
- Shaun A Truelove
- Shelby Wilson
- Shi Chen
- Srinivasan Venkatramanan
- Stefan Hoops
- Teresa K. Yamana
- Xinyue Xiong
Organizations
- Amazon
- California Department of Public Health
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- Columbia University
- Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists
- Defense Threat Reduction Agency
- Harvard University
- Huck Institutes of the Life Sciences
- Johns Hopkins University
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
- National Institute of General Medical Sciences
- National Institutes of Health
- National Science Foundation
- North Carolina Biotechnology Center
- Northeastern University
- Pennsylvania State University
- Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne
- Swiss National Science Foundation
- United States Department of Health and Human Services
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
- University of North Carolina at Charlotte
- University of Pittsburgh
- University of Southern California
- University of Victoria
- University of Virginia
- Virginia Department of Health