World Modelers
Abstract
The World Modelers program is creating explanatory models for natural and human-mediated systems at regional and global scales. The world is highly interdependent, and disruption of natural resources, supply chains, and production systems can have severe consequences. The World Modelers capability is focused on regional and global systems with the goal of generating timely indications and warnings of impending catastrophe. Water and food security are application domains of particular interest, as persistent drought may cause crops to fail, leading to migration and regional conflicts. The World Modelers program is developing techniques for automating the creation, maintenance, and validation of large-scale integrated models using publicly available news and analyst reports as a structuring mechanism, and government and commercial data as quantitative inputs. One critical issue involves determining when correlations are strictly statistical versus when they result from causal relationships; in the latter case, models can reveal effective interventions. Advances in machine reading and learning, semantic technologies, big data analysis, geo-spatial and economic modeling, and environmental simulation bring this strategic capability within reach.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Accomplishment
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 2019
- Source ID
- 1a1fa05b9d851e0cba784c9a89c26301