Science and Technology Analytic Assessments
Abstract
The Science and Technology (S&T) Analytic Assessments Program Element (PE) shapes the development of innovative capabilities to address emerging threats from a diverse range of state and non-state actors as outlined in the NDS. Due to the complexity of these challenges, the process for developing and executing these analytic assessments span fiscal years and may have multiple phases. The emerging nature of the problem sets makes specific identification of all the study projects beyond the budget year unlikely. Implementation of this process spans multiple years causing the portfolio to cascade from year-to-year. Operational Assessments identify prioritized operational issues and associated actionable technology focus areas. These assessments help shape technology investment decisions and inform the strategic direction of capability development. Characterizations of future operating environments and associated challenges inform the scoping and design efforts of mission engineering and mission integration analyses for OUSD(R&E). Because of the future-oriented timeframe, these analyses will also help to inform requirements rather than waiting for current processes to develop them. Main lines of effort include the following activities: - Produce detailed characterizations of U.S. and adversary capabilities and technology development efforts. This data enables mission-oriented analysis of emerging threats. - Produce operational impact assessments of potential technology improvements to future military capabilities. - Produce standardized technology-focused timelines to summarize and track DoD progress toward technical dominance in priority technology areas. - Produce Operational Environment Packages that characterize the future operational environment through integration of strategy, doctrine, policy, concepts, technology, and intelligence to provide a common analytic baseline for examining technologies, capabilities, gaps, and opportunities. Technical Analysis is performed by DoD-sponsored FFRDC/UARC performers and Department of Defense and Department of Energy (DoD/DoE) laboratories. Main lines of effort include: - Technical threat assessments informed by IC products for identifying gaps in U.S. capability for critical threats. - Quantitative, engineering-level analysis of potential novel technology and concepts to address capability gaps and counter emerging threat technologies in future environments. - Independent assessment of U.S. and potential adversary critical capability and technology development. - Net technical assessment of existing and planned U.S. capabilities and weapons systems using emerging threat systems and capabilities in future operating environments. Technology wargames identify opportunities stemming from emerging technologies, evaluate the demands of the future operational environment, and integrate the operational, technology, and intelligence communities. Wargame outputs inform future concept and capability development, prototyping and experimentation activities, threat forecasting, and DoD S&T investments. Main lines of effort include: - Execution of Emerging Disruptive Technology (EDT) Wargames to inform and better align Joint Warfighting Concept development and DoD modernization activities. SIAC funding of modeling, simulation, and analysis (M&SA) computer-based engineering models is concluded as of FY 2021. Development and integration efforts previously funded by this PE have transitioned to a self-sustaining and externally funded structure, as the tools are further matured and will be operated based on end-user needs. An increased level of effort is directed towards developing and delivering operational baselines that support mission engineering/mission integration efforts of the OUSD(R&E), beginning FY 2021 and continuing in FY 2022. Operational baselines and wargames will continue to be more frequently incorporated into a wider scope of mission-level analytic design conducted by OUSD(R&E), and the mission emphasis of these activities has been adjusted to meet current and future needs.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Project
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 2022
- Source ID
- 328_0603288D8Z_3_0400_PB_2022
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