Project Air Force

Abstract

PAF is organized in four primary research program areas: Strategy & Doctrine (SD); Force Modernization & Employment (FME); Workforce, Development & Health (WDH); and Resource Management (RM). Integrative research projects are also conducted with direct support provided through the most applicable program. Research programs address organizational crosscutting issues as defined by specific research themes approved by the Department of the Air Force Steering Group which is tri-chaired by the Under Secretary of the Air Force, Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force, and Vice Chief of Space Operations. These research programs encompass a wide spectrum of topics including external challenges to national security; joint and coalition operations; integrated roadmap development for Air and Space military capabilities; enhancing, tailoring and reducing infrastructure to meet new force requirements; potential changes to the Active/Reserve/National Guard/Civilian/Contractor manpower mix; and improved weapon system costing. The research program will continue to build upon research foundations, examining the evolving security environment, emerging threats, national and military strategy, transformation approaches including investment strategies to provide capabilities within changing Defense budgets, operational concepts to meet evolving and increasingly joint missions, exploiting advanced technologies, increasing the effectiveness and efficiency of combat support, and developing the total force (Active/Reserve/National Guard/Civilian/Contractor). These efforts will continue to inform and support decision-making by senior Department of the Air Force leadership regarding personnel management and training; improving logistical efficiencies and force sustainment; ongoing conflicts and joint operations; force structure capabilities, limitations, and operational concepts; and making force structure tradeoffs within resource constraints to meet future national security and Air Force needs. Future research will build upon earlier work to continue to help the Department of the Air Force to rapidly and appropriately adapt to the changing world environment and emerging threats; continue to modernize and employ its force structure to provide capabilities within changing DoD budgets; assess lessons learned from recent and ongoing conflicts; develop and utilize its total force; and enhance the support of our aerospace forces, ranging from sustainment of the force structure to agile combat support. PAF research spans functional and organizational boundaries and is managed in a manner to facilitate independence and freedom from organizational bias thereby providing perspectives and insights to senior Department of the Air Force leaders free from parochial influences not necessarily in the best interest of the Department of the Air Force at large. Benefits of independent non-Department of Defense analysis of complex present day and emerging issues are shared beyond the Air and Space Forces. PAF study results are given wide dissemination within the DOD on a routine basis and are deposited with the Defense Technical Information Center available to a broad range of qualified government and commercial-sector individuals and activities. This program element may include necessary civilian pay expenses required to manage, execute, and deliver weapon system capability. The use of such program funds would be in addition to the civilian pay expenses budgeted in program element 0605827F, 0605828F, 0605829F, 0605831F, 0605832F, 0605833F, 0605898F, 0606398F. In FY22 0M was expended for civilian pay expenses in this program element, and in FY23 0M is forecasted for civilian pay expenses in this program element. In FY23, a 5.154M reduction was applied by Department of the Air Force as an initial share of the reduction referenced in FY 23 section 8026(e) of the Appropriations Law to ‘the total amount appropriated in this Act for FFRDCs …. Historically this reduction has not been applied to the RAND Project Air Force program element to a significant degree. Funds from this reduction were restored by the Department of Air Force as an unfunded requirement in FY23 to avoid critical impacts and cancellations to ongoing studies. The budget requests for FY25 and FY24 are in line with the FY 23 appropriation, prior to the reduction (which was later effectively reversed by Air Force), and the amount appropriated in FY22 on an inflation adjusted basis. Please note that the grand total of Staff Years of Technical Effort (STE) requested by RAND Project Air Force as part of the Department's FFRDC budget request has remained constant at 127 STE from FY22 to FY24. This program provides for continuing analytical research across a broad spectrum of aerospace issues and concerns. The Project AIR FORCE (PAF) research agenda is focused primarily on mid to long-term problems; in addition, PAF provides quick response assistance for senior Air Force officials on high priority, near term issues. Within these areas, PAF addresses difficult and complex, far-reaching and inter-related questions linked to future strategies, approaches and policies, in order to enhance Air Force senior leadership's deliberations and decision making on major issues. The Air Force Steering Group, chaired by the Vice Chief of Staff, reviews, monitors, and approves PAF annual research efforts. Each project is initiated, processed, and approved in accordance with PAF Sponsoring Agreement which requires General Officer (or SES equivalent) sponsorship and involvement on a continuing basis. FY23 Actuals and FY24 TriChair Approved Projects are identified in the table below. FY23 FY24 Projects STE Projects STE SDP 7 19.75 8,182,425 8 20.00 8,568,000 FMEP 6 20.25 8,389,575 7 24.00 10,281,600 WDHP 7 20.75 8,596,725 8 20.00 8,568,000 RMP 7 21.25 8,803,875 7 21.00 8,996,400 CV Reserve 4.00 1,657,200 2.00 856,800 TOTAL 27 86.00 35,629,800 30 87.00 37,270,800 PAFC23 Task # / STE / $ : Title Strategy and Doctrine Program (SDP) S310 / 3 / 1.24M : China and Russia Space Net Assessment Project S320 / 2.5 / 1.04M : Integrated Deterrence with Allies and Partners - Implications for Department of the Air Force (DAF) Security Cooperation (SC) S330 / 2.75 / 1.14M : Long-Range Strike Options to Stay Below the Nuclear Threshold S340 / 3 / 1.24M : Crisis Stability in Space S350 / 3 / 1.24M : Plan Blue 23 Wargame Analytic Effort & Title 10 Wargame Integration S360 / 2 / 0.83M : Lessons Learned from Space Operations with Allies and Partners and Implications for Security Cooperation (SC) S370 / 2.5 / 1.04M : United States Air Force (USAF) Missions in Competition with Russia and China S301 / 1 / 0.41M : SDP Concept Formulation SDP / 19.75 / 8.18M : SDP Total Force Modernization and Employment Program (FMEP) F310 / 3 / 1.24M : Data-centric Warfighting - Sharing at Speed and Scale F320 / 2.75 / 1.14M : Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Space Domain Awareness F330 / 3 / 1.24M : Enhancing Space Mission Assurance to Cyber Threats F340 / 3.5 / 1.45M : Characterizing Air Force Electromagnetic Battle Management F350 / 3.5 / 1.45M : Formulating The Future Aerial Refueling Enterprise For Peer-Conflict F360 / 3.5 / 1.45M : Integration of Op C2 and Intel to Meet the Pacing Threat in PACAF F301 / 1 / 0.41M : FMEP Concept Formulation FMEP / 20.25 / 8.39M : FMEP Total Workforce, Development, and Health Program (WDHP) W310 / 3.5 / 1.45M : Developing Digital Airmen: Talent Management of Tomorrow W320 / 3 / 1.24M : Analysis of Barriers to USSF Talent Management Transformation W330 / 2.5 / 1.04M : Optimization of Active and Reserve Component Force Structure W340 / 2.5 / 1.04M : Exploring the Use of Advanced Learning Technologies to Enhance the Efficiency and Effectiveness of Air Force Training W350 / 2 / 0.83M : Synchronizing the U.S. Air Force (USAF) USAF and U.S. Space Force (USSF) in a Department of the Air Force (DAF)-Wide Acquisition Workforce W360 / 3.75 / 1.55M : Reducing Racial/Ethnic and Gender Disparities in Force Development W370 / 2.5 / 1.04M : Manning the Nuclear Deterrence Operations (NDO) Force Through 2040 W301 / 1 / 0.41M : WDHP Concept Formulation WDHP / 20.75 / 8.6M : WDHP Total Resource Management Program (RMP) R310 / 3.5 / 1.45M : Cost for Effectiveness - Efficiency of Critical Infrastructure Protection Options R320 / 3 / 1.24M : Civil Engineer and Logistics Challenges in Generating Sorties Under Attack Within the Agile Combat Employment Construct R330 / 2 / 0.83M : Transforming United States Space Force's (USSF's) Capability Development R340 / 2.75 / 1.14M : Assessment of Digital Engineering: Its Implications for Weapon System Programs and Supply Chain Adoption R350 / 3 / 1.24M : Energizing and Synchronizing Research, Development, and Technology Transfer for the Use of Space R360 / 3 / 1.24M : Transforming Legacy Logistics Support to Agile Combat Employment (ACE) Operations in a Contested Environment R370 / 3 / 1.24M : Accelerating and Improving Nuclear Safety Design Certification of Weapon Systems Through Digital Engineering R301 / 1 / 0.41M : RMP Concept Formulation RMP / 21.25 / 8.8M : RMP Total CV Reserve R385 / 2 / 0.83M : CV Reserve P301 / 2 / 0.83M : Unit Concept Formulation CVRes / 4 / 1.66M : CV Reserve Total RAND PAF Program Total ALL / 86 / 35.63M : RAND PAF ALL FY24 Tri-Chair Approved Projects PAFC24 Task # / STE / $ : Title Strategy and Doctrine Program (SDP) S410 / 2.5 / 1.07M : Adversary perceptions and reactions to U.S. proliferated LEO S420 / 2 / 0.86M : The Day After...Taiwan S430 / 2 / 0.86M : End Game: How Might War in Ukraine End and How Will the Outcome Shape Future Force Needs S440 / 2 / 0.86M : Air Base Defense Gaps and Seams S450 / 3 / 1.29M : Plan Blue 24 Wargame Analytic Effort & Title 10 Wargame Integration S460 / 2.5 / 1.07M : Deterring Multiple Nuclear-Armed Adversaries in a Post-New START Environment: Implications for Air Force Posture and Requirements S470 / 3 / 1.29M : Objectively Comparing the Spillage Risk of Sharing Information with Key Allies/Partners against the Operational Risk of Not Sharing It S480 / 2 / 0.86M : Monitoring Adversary Approaches to Security Cooperation (SC) and the Impact to Strategic Outcomes S401 / 1 / 0.43M : SDP Concept Formulation SDP / 20 / 8.57M : SDP Total Force Modernization and Employment Program (FMEP) F410 / 3.5 / 1.5M : Kill chain analysis and support to the USSF and USAF F420 / 3.5 / 1.5M : Winning the First Critical Battle: Designing an Autonomous and Resilient Sensing Grid to Enable Effective JADC2 at the Forward Edge of Combat F430 / 3 / 1.29M : Ensuring Successful Electromagnetic Operations in a Complex, Contested, and Congested Electromagnetic Environment F440 / 2.5 / 1.07M : E-7 Kill Chain and Survivability Improvement Study F450 / 3.5 / 1.5M : Enabling Effective Modernization for Sense-making for Key Operation Missions F460 / 3.5 / 1.5M : Measuring the Contributions of Space across Military Operations, National Defense, and National Security F470 / 3.5 / 1.5M : Force Mix and Munitions Planning for Autonomous and Manned Platforms in High Intensity Conflict F401 / 1 / 0.43M : FMEP Concept Formulation FMEP / 24 / 10.28M : FMEP Total Workforce, Development, and Health Program (WDHP) W410 / 3 / 1.29M : Developing Multi-Capable Airmen for Agile Combat Support W420 / 2 / 0.86M : Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) Workforce Needs for the Development of Future Technology Required to Defeat China W430 / 2 / 0.86M : Manning the Nuclear Deterrence Operations (NDO) Force Through 2040: Part 2 W440 / 2 / 0.86M : Bonus and Incentive Pay Analysis W450 / 2 / 0.86M : OTTI Business Model/Organizational Roles & Responsibilities W460 / 3 / 1.29M : Methods and processes to realize and improve EMSO readiness for the CAF W470 / 2 / 0.86M : Evaluation of Air Force Recruiting Enterprise Structure and Business Mode W480 / 3 / 1.29M : Addressing Perceptions of Racial/Ethnic and Gender Disparities in the DAF Work Environment W401 / 1 / 0.43M : WDHP Concept Formulation WDHP / 20 / 8.57M : WDHP Total Resource Management Program (RMP) R410 / 3 / 1.29M : Base Resilience Investment Strategies R420 / 2 / 0.86M : Expanding Combat Capability by Improving Interoperability with Joint and Allied Partners R430 / 3 / 1.29M : The US Defense Industrial Base (DIB) Munition Production Capacity Impacts to Air Force Wartime Surge Capability and Protracted Warfare Sustainability R440 / 3 / 1.29M : Global Posture Strategy to Enable Agile and Responsive Operations in (Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear) CBRN Environments R450 / 2.5 / 1.07M : More Effective and Efficient Modeling and Simulation Capabilities Across U.S. Space Force Communities R460 / 4 / 1.71M : Pacific Basing, Logistics and Sustainment Roadmap - Agile Combat Employment (ACE) 2030-2040 R470 / 2.5 / 1.07M : Reducing Space Mission Risk from Cyber Threats to ICS and SCADA systems R401 / 1 / 0.43M : RMP Concept Formulation RMP / 21 / 9M : RMP Total CV Reserve N/A / 0 / 0M : CV Reserve P401 / 2 / 0.86M : Unit Concept Formulation CVRes / 2 / 0.86M : CV Reserve Total RAND PAF Program Total ALL / 87 / 37.27M : RAND PAF ALL This program is in Budget Activity 6, RDT&E Management Support because this budget activity includes research, development, test and evaluation efforts and funds to sustain and/or modernize the installations or operations required for general research, development, test and evaluation.

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Document Type: Project
Publication Date: Oct 01, 2025
Source ID: 661110_0605101F_6_3600_PB_2025

Project Air Force

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