Cost Estimating Modeling (CEM)
Abstract
Cost Estimating Modeling (CEM) provides and enhances Air Force-wide cost estimating capabilities by developing and modernizing current cost data and estimating models and methods. These products will improve the quality, timeliness, and effectiveness of the acquisition program cost estimates required by statute (e.g., 10 USC 2366, 2433, 2434) and regulation (e.g., DoDI 5000.02) in support of Air Force and Department of Defense acquisition decisions, programming and execution decisions, and Congressional mandates. The Air Force has several requirements for research and development of new and modernized cost estimating capabilities for each weapon system type (aircraft, ballistic missiles, electronics and aircraft modifications, ground stations and automated information systems, cross cutting databases, satellites and launch vehicles, tactical missiles and munitions). In addition, unanticipated requirements often emerge due to changing acquisition laws, regulations, initiatives; changing technologies; and evolving warfighter requirements which drive the need for cost tool updates or expanded capability. For example, current shortfalls in capability reflect efforts needed to fill gaps in response to the laws and regulations such as the FY06 NDAA report {PL 109-163--Provisions relating to Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs)}, Weapon System Acquisition Reform Act (WSARA) {provisions related to improving cost estimating quality, especially earlier in the program life-cycle and affordability analysis}, Secretary of the Air Force (SECAF) Acquisition Excellence Plan {priorities to improve cost estimating capability and affordability analysis and improved cost estimating support to requirements process}, and new Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) policy {better buying power initiatives on enhanced trade-off analysis, affordability analysis, and will versus should cost analysis}. This project will perform knowledge-based studies (KBS) analyzing historical data to produce cost estimate reviews (CERs) or statistical data that will inform a future decision to develop cost estimating databases, methods, and models across hundreds of product work breakdown structure (WBS) elements and functional cost elements within each weapon system type. The different weapon system types are: Aircraft, Ballistic Missiles, Electronics and Aircraft Modifications, Ground Stations and Automated Information Systems (AIS), Cross-Cutting Databases, Satellite and Launch Vehicles (Space Systems), and Tactical Missiles and Munitions. Some areas of cost modeling efforts that are cross-cutting within all weapon system types are: cost risk metrics, methods development, statistical model enhancements; software cost database, metrics, statistical model development; contract or engineering change order analysis models; other government cost elements (e.g., program office manning, administration, government test); and commodity area price escalation analysis and models. The CEM requirement is authorized per the 8 November 2013 Cost Estimating Modeling (CEM) Requirements Justification memo signed by Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force (Cost & Economics).
Document Details
- Document Type
- Project
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 2015
- Source ID
- 675177_0901538F_7_3600_PB_2015
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