Cost Estimating Modeling (CEM)

Abstract

Cost Estimating Modeling (CEM) provides and enhances Air Force-wide cost estimating capabilities by developing current cost data and estimating methods and tools, data process reengineering, data structure development, and gap filling initiatives. In collaboration with the OSD Cost Assessment Data Enterprise (CADE) project (DoD’s unified initiative to collect, organize, store, and use data more efficiently), these products will improve the quality, timeliness, and effectiveness of the acquisition program cost estimates required by statute (e.g., 10 USC 2366, 2433, 2434) and regulation (e.g., DoDI 5000.02) in support of AF and DoD acquisition decisions, programming and execution decisions, and Congressional mandates. CEM will ensure the Air Force continuously improves cost estimating capabilities for broad cross-cutting areas, as well as specific to each weapon system type (aircraft, UAVs, ballistic missiles, tactical missiles, munitions, electronics and aircraft modifications, ground stations and automated information systems, space and launch vehicles). Changing technologies, acquisition laws, regulations, and initiatives drive the need to revise cost estimating processes, methods, and tools. For example, current capability shortfalls reflect gaps in the ability to respond effectively to the laws and regulations such as the FY06 NDAA report (PL 109-163--Provisions relating to Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs)), Weapon System Acquisition Reform Act (WSARA) (provisions related to improving cost estimating quality, especially earlier in the program life-cycle and affordability analysis), Secretary of the Air Force (SECAF) Acquisition Excellence Plan (priorities to improve cost estimating capability and affordability analysis and improved cost estimating support to requirements process), and Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) policy (better buying power initiatives on enhanced trade-off analysis, affordability analysis, and will versus should cost analysis). The CADE and CEM partnership is the lead example for AT&L Better Data initiatives designed as a response to Congressional expressed desire for better outcomes in acquisition. The partnership provides data/analysis/methods/tools and institutional knowledge at the analysts’ fingertips versus the status quo inefficient, ad hoc approach. This project will perform knowledge-based studies (KBS) to include analyzing historical data and changing technologies/programmatics to develop new estimating methods (e.g. statistical tools, cost estimating relationships (CERs)) across hundreds of product work breakdown structure (WBS) elements and functional cost elements within each weapon system type noted above. Examples of areas of cost studies and modeling efforts that cut across all weapon system types are cost risk analysis metrics; model/tool development; software cost data sets and metrics; contract or engineering change order studies, analysis, and models; other government cost databases, methods, and analysis tools (e.g., depot standup and government test); nuclear hardening technology change and impacts to cost; cybersecurity emerging issues and costs; time phasing method improvements; reliability and maintainability trends and impacts on cost; and overarching and commodity area price escalation analysis and estimating method development. CEM will deliver valuable analytical tools in support of higher quality/credible estimates (as required by statute and regulation) allowing for more realistic cost conscious decisions on over $100B of critical warfighter capability.

Document Details

• Document Type: Project
• Publication Date: Oct 01, 2018
• Source ID: 675177_0901538F_7_3600_PB_2018

Tags

Readers

• Ballistic Missile Meteorology
• Defense Acquisition Program Management
• Life Cycle Cost Analysis

Technology Areas

• Cyber
• Microelectronics
• Space