OBJECTIVE WIND FORECASTING OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC

Abstract

The results of a study of the potentialities of two simple objective techniques for wind forecasting over the tropical Pacific are presented. The investigation revealed that objective extrapolation of the winds does not provide a usable forecast. A simple statistical regression technique, which yields a forecast composed of a weighted combination of the persistence wind and the normal wind, does produce a useful improvement upon current forecast accuracy. The study further shows that, although it is difficult to anticipate the optimum weighting parameters without laborious computation, the technique can be applied immediately in the field for 24-hr forecasts. This is due to the circumstance that a simple average of persistence and the long term mean wind does as well as the optimum weighted combination of the two for a 24-hr forecast evaluated over the area as a whole. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 1960
Accession Number
AD0251102

Entities

People

  • C.j. Wiederanders
  • R.l. Lavoie

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Computations
  • Delphi Method
  • Extrapolation
  • Mathematical Analysis
  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Regression Analysis.