DEFERRED DECISION THEORY

Abstract

The problem examined is the case of the simple two-alternative decision in which it is allowable to defer decision until further observations have been made. Given the costs of making errors and the cost of deferring a decision, the problem is to determine a course of action which will minimize the expected losses. An iterative algorithm is presented for calculation of decision points. The existence of decision points is proved by proving convergence for the algorithm. Results for Gaussian distributions run on the IBM 704 are included. For the parameters examined it is shown that the decision points converge within four deferrals. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 01, 1961
Accession Number
AD0263909

Entities

People

  • H.h. Goode

Organizations

  • University of Michigan

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Algorithms
  • Convergence
  • Decision Theory
  • Gaussian Distributions
  • Mathematics
  • Observation

Readers

  • Calculus or Mathematical Analysis
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Regression Analysis.