A PROPOSAL FOR DEVELOPING A HURRICANE PLAN WITH A BUILT-IN DECISION- MAKING CAPABILITY

Abstract

This study originated to determine a statistical measure of the ability of weather forecasters to prognosticate the movement of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean Sea area. The knowledge gained was exploited into the formulation of a scheme which provided a probability basis for deciding if and when storm preparations should be made. This scheme made it feasible to construct a hurricane plan with hedging characteristics. The objectives are to present: (1) the results of the statistical study, (2) the probability scheme developed for preparedness decision-making, and (3) the outline for developing a hurricane plan with hedging characteristics which incorporates the decisionmaking mechanism. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 01, 1961
Accession Number
AD0268361

Entities

People

  • Max J. Cleveland

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Air Force Facilities
  • Analysis Of Variance
  • Caribbean Sea
  • Confidence Limits
  • Cost Estimates
  • Data Science
  • Errors
  • Information Science
  • Lead Time
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Standards
  • Statistical Algorithms
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Statistical Tests
  • Surveys

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Emergency Management and Homeland Security.
  • Systems Analysis and Design