AN APPLICATION OF SEQUENTIAL ANALYSIS TO A TARGETING PROBLEM

Abstract

IN ANY SIMULATED NUCLEAR ATTACK WITH LARGE MISSILES ON EXPANDED TARGETS, T E STATISTICAL EXPERIMENT ALWAYS INDICATES SUCCESS OR FAILURE FOR THE ATTACK. A sequential analysis procedure decides in a Monte Carlo series with the events success or failure, whether or not the basic probability q for success is over or under 90%. The parameters for the sequential analysis procedure were calculated for the following regions of uncertain decisions: (90 + or - delta q)%, with delta q = 2, 2.5, 3, 4, 5. If q i outside these regions, the decisions are right with a confidence level of greater than 95%. To insure these confidence levels, lower limits of the number of trials for an arbitrary process determination are calculated. Besides the specific application to targeting problems, t e procedure can also be used for every other binomial distribution. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 20, 1962
Accession Number
AD0283456

Entities

People

  • Eberhard H. Baur

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Binomials
  • Data Science
  • Information Science
  • Mathematics
  • Probability
  • Sequential Analysis
  • Targeting
  • Targets

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Statistical inference.
  • Strategic Security Studies