AN OBJECTIVE AID FOR FORECASTING STRONG AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT PORTLAND AFB, OREGON

Abstract

A technique is described for forecasting strong southwesterly surface winds with gusts greater than 25 knots during the months of December through March at Portland AFB, Oregon. The greater value of this technique lies in its ability to forecast nonoccurrences. Current data and refinements should be added to increase its accuracy and usability. The final product is not so sensitive that it will always cut on and off exactly within the limits specified. On several occasions the method gave near misses which were sufficiently close to be of value to the operational forecast. It was recommended that the main role of this objective aid be that of a guide and that it be modified by the forecaster in those cases where he has information other than that used by the technique. This technique is not reliable for forecasting winds with an easterly component. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1962
Accession Number
AD0285551

Entities

People

  • Thomas H. Simmonds

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Delphi Method

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Hydraulic Engineering.
  • Regression Analysis.