ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITY OF OPERATIONALLY-CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS AFFECTING AN AIR BASE DURING THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
Abstract
A forecast of a tropical cyclone to pass in the vicinity of a base require certain decisions to be made, such as whether to tie down or evacuate aircraft, delay construction projects, remove. missiles from firing pads, etc. A decision to take such protective action is based primarily on the expectancy of occurrence of wind speeds above a critical value considered hazardous to that particular installation. In order to balance THE COST OF PROTECTION AGAINST THE DAMAGE INCURRED BY AN unprotected forecast of a tropical cyclone to pass in the vicinity of a base require certain decisions to be made, such as whether to tie down or evacuate aircraft, delay construction projects, remove missiles from firing pads, etc. A decision to take such protective action is based primarily on the expectancy of occurrence of wind speeds above a critical value considered hazardous to that particular installation. In order to balance THE COST OF PROTECTION AGAINST THE DAMAGE INCURRED BY AN UNPROTECTED BASE, THE COMMANDER MUST KNOW THE PROBABILITY OF HIS INSTALLATION BEING STRUCK BY ABOVE-CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM. In June 1958, Air Weather Service published a technical report (AD 218 559) which outlined a method for computing the total probability of above-critical wind speeds affecting an airbase at some time during the passage of a hurricane or typhoon. A technique was developed for obtaining the instantaneous probability of strong winds affecting a base at each hour during the storm's passage, and a somewhat different approach was used to obtain the hour-by-hour instantaneous probability.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 01, 1962
- Accession Number
- AD0286695
Entities
People
- H. S. Appleman