THE DISPLAY OF PROBABILISTIC SOLUTIONS IN SONAR TARGET CLASSIFICATION
Abstract
The comparative meaningfulness of five, alter native methods of displaying classification in formation was investigated. Three displays were based on likelihood ratio, a fourth was a display of 20 solution lights such as that used with MITEC, and the fifth was based on the traditional Navy three- category classification (trichotomy). The three displays based on likelihood ratio produced interpretations very similar to those of a theoretically ideal interpreter. There was some unwillingness to extract the appropriate amount of certainty from very small or very large ratios. The 20-lights display was interpreted essentially as a linear, equal-interval scale of probability, an interpretation not intended by its designers. Overly conservative reactions, in relation to an ideal interpreter, occurred both for moderately low and moderately high probabilities. The traditional Navy trichotomy produced severely limited interpretations, the phrase 'possible submarine' producing reactions of nearly maximum uncertainty. There were substantial differences in interpretation among the subjects. The problem of intelligent design of probabilistic displays is discussed along with the need of the designer of clue correlating de vices to match the output display with the inter pretations of potential users.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 1963
- Accession Number
- AD0335934
Entities
People
- Robert R. Mackie